Truth, Justice, and the American way. TRUTH: Helping to correct people's misconceptions about history, science, and the state of the world. JUSTICE: Meant in the biblical sense. Fair treatment of other people, rational laws, and assisting the disadvantaged. THE AMERICAN WAY: A classless society where everybody has an opportunity to meet their potential and for economic advancement, regardless of race, ancestry, religion, gender, or sexual orientation.

Monday, October 12, 2015

We Can Predict the Next Deep Recession and it Will be Violent

World history has taught us that as the poor and middle class are better able to communicate if the disparity in income between rich and poor is growing, it results in civil unrest and sometimes violence. If wealth redistribution does not occur, eventually the government is overthrown and wealth redistribution occurs. The United States came close to widespread, deadly violence in the 1930's, but President Roosevelt convinced congress and corporate leaders to spend money to improve the living conditions of the poor.

The economic losses that caused the Great Depression were not much worse than the 2008 recession (even adjusting for inflation). The difference this time was that social programs were in place to help reduce homelessnes and hunger. But the US has still not recovered from the 2008 recession.

The US has still not recovered from the housing market crash of 2006, the stock market crash of 2008, and the recession of 2008. After adjusting for inflation, stock prices have not reached the highs of 2000. Because the US Military interventions in Southern Asia, Asia Minor, and North Africa have all be funded by borrowing, we can expect a serious (probably "double dip") recession between 2023 and 2028. A minor crash in real estate prices can also be expected during this period.

The median income per wage earner in the US has dropped by almost 60% since 1975 (adjusting for inflation). This has caused a drop in the number of families in the middle class, most adults think that all of the adults in a family have to work to keep the family solvent (eat, pay rent/mortgage, replace worn out houshold goods, pay for healthcare, and pay bills). This has resulted in a generation of children, most of whom have spen almost all of their non-school time without adult supervision. These children have less exposure to moral teachings and are more likely to join gangs and cults.

Even after inflation, the total wealth in the US is higher than 40 years ago, but household income is down by around 1/3. The extra wealth is almost all owned by the upper class. Over half of families in the US have no savings or retirement savings. Unsecured debt (mostly credit cards) in the US recently exceeded the US government debt.

If the rate of US concentration of wealth continues, a double dip recession can be expected to result in "viral" rioting. A viral riot is violence starting in one neighborhood triggering violence elsewhere, because of pent-up rage. When Congress added restrictions to bankruptcy, they increased the probability of a viral riot.

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Canoga Park, California, United States
Software Engineer with Ph.D. in Computer Science. I have a deep background in the sciences and in computer-human interaction. I was a college professor for 11 years, followed by over a decade of work in industry.